Oakland Athletics at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Max SchuemannBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Mitch SpencePitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Reds- Tyler StephensonBatting3-4
- Jakob JunisPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Steer singled to center, Stephenson scored.5–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking5–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 9Friedl grounded out to first, De La Cruz scored, Stephenson to second.5–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 8Espinal walked, Stephenson scored, Benson to second, Steer to third.5–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 45–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 35–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 25–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 8Gelof homered to left center (424 feet).5–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–1
- 7Butler homered to right center (444 feet), Wilson scored.4–1
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging4–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 24–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 7Schuemann homered to right (341 feet), Brown scored.2–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4France singled to right, Stephenson scored, Steer to third.0–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 54%
- ML OAK +110 / CIN -130
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.9 pts
- CIN: Elo 62.1%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- CIN -119
- OAK +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.6 – 4.9 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1449 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +17 | OAK: Mitch Spence: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CIN: Jakob Junis: team allows 0.85 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +86 Elo | CIN 62.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 57.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 27th of 3023–40 | Road vs home | 31–3425th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season | OAK |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 69–61 | 73–58 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–10 | 30–35 |
| Underdog | 60–51 | 43–23 |
| Overs–unders | 60–70 | 63–67–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OAK 1–2 CIN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.