Milwaukee Brewers at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Rhys HoskinsBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Aaron CivalePitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Athletics- Lawrence ButlerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ross StriplingPitching4.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Hoskins hit sacrifice fly to left, Sánchez scored.11–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play11–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 111–3
- 9Sánchez tripled to center, Perkins scored, Contreras scored and Adames scored.10–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play10–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking10–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 110–3
- 4Butler grounded out to pitcher, Brown scored, Hernaiz to second, Gelof to third.7–3
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul7–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking7–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 17–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–3
- 4Hernaiz walked, Langeliers scored, Gelof to second, Brown to third.7–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 47–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul7–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 37–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking7–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 27–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 17–2
- 4Perkins reached on infield single to second, Chourio scored on fielding error by second baseman Gelof.7–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 17–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–1
- 4Chourio doubled to center, Frelick scored.6–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging6–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–1
- 2Chourio singled to center, Monasterio scored on fielding error by left fielder Andujar, Chourio to second.5–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–1
- 2Ortiz homered to center (407 feet).4–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 2Hoskins homered to left (384 feet), Adames scored and Sánchez scored.3–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 13–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 1Butler homered to center (401 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 51%
- ML MIL -115 / OAK -105
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.4 pts
- MIL: Elo 56.5%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MIL -104
- OAK +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.8 – 3.7 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1452 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +15 | MIL: Aaron Civale: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · OAK: JP Sears: team allows 0.77 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +45 Elo | MIL 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.025th of 30 |
| 3rd of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.520th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.525th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 6th of 3035–30 | Road vs home | 32–3320th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 68–57 | 68–59 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 28–39 | 9–9 |
| Underdog | 40–18 | 59–50 |
| Overs–unders | 70–55 | 58–69 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 0–3 OAK in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.