Milwaukee Brewers at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Gary SanchezBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Frankie MontasPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Athletics- Seth BrownBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Joey EstesPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Adames homered to left (374 feet).3–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul3–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 23–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 4Gelof hit sacrifice fly to center, Langeliers scored.2–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–4
- 4Cameron hit sacrifice fly to right, Bleday scored, Langeliers to third.2–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 22–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–3
- 4Brown singled to right, Rooker scored, Langeliers to second, Bleday to third.2–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Langeliers walked, Butler scored, Bleday to second, Rooker to third.2–1
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball 42–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 32–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 2Sánchez homered to left (377 feet), Frelick scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 57%
- ML MIL -150 / OAK +125
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.7 pts
- MIL: Elo 61.1%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- MIL -135
- OAK +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.6 – 3.9 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1447 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −1 | MIL: Frankie Montas: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · OAK: Joey Estes: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +79 Elo | MIL 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 56.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.025th of 30 |
| 3rd of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.622nd of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.9 | Margin | −0.626th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 6th of 3037–30 | Road vs home | 32–3524th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 70–57 | 68–61 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 29–39 | 9–10 |
| Underdog | 41–18 | 59–51 |
| Overs–unders | 72–55 | 60–69 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 2–3 OAK in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.