Milwaukee Brewers at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Jake BauersBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching6.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Athletics- Brent RookerBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Joe BoylePitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rooker singled to left, Gelof scored, Cameron to third.9–5
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play9–5
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul9–5
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul9–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking9–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 39–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 29–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 19–5
- 9Hoskins singled to left, Contreras scored, Adames to third.9–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–4
- 9Chourio scored, Adames to second on passed ball by Langeliers, Contreras to third on passed ball by Langeliers.8–4
- 9Chourio scored, Adames to second on passed ball by Langeliers, Contreras to third on passed ball by Langeliers.8–4
- 9Contreras grounded into fielder's choice to third, Turang scored, Chourio to second.7–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 27–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–4
- 8Mitchell doubled to left, Bauers scored.6–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking6–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 26–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging6–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–4
- 7Cameron doubled to right, Gelof scored.5–4
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 35–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 25–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 6Rooker homered to left center (402 feet), Butler scored.5–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–3
- 5Bauers homered to right center (399 feet), Adames scored.5–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 35–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging5–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 25–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 53%
- ML MIL -125 / OAK +105
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.4 pts
- MIL: Elo 61.6%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- MIL -114
- OAK +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.9 – 3.6 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1449 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +1 | MIL: Colin Rea: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · OAK: Joe Boyle: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +82 Elo | MIL 61.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 54.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.025th of 30 |
| 3rd of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.622nd of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.626th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 5th of 3036–30 | Road vs home | 32–3422nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 69–57 | 68–60 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 28–39 | 9–10 |
| Underdog | 41–18 | 59–50 |
| Overs–unders | 71–55 | 59–69 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 1–3 OAK in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.