Oakland Athletics at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Seth BrownBatting2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Osvaldo BidoPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Reds- Will BensonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Fernando CruzPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Wilson sacrificed into double play, center to first to shortstop, Gelof scored, Schuemann thrown out at second.9–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 19–6
- 8Brown homered to center (406 feet), Bleday scored and Langeliers scored.8–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 28–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 18–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul8–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–6
- 7Benson homered to right (365 feet), France scored and Rosario scored.5–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–6
- 7France singled to right, Espinal scored.5–3
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 25–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 15–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 7Espinal doubled to left, Stephenson scored.5–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 7Stephenson doubled to left, De La Cruz scored.5–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–1
- 7Butler grounded into fielder's choice to second, Gelof scored, Wilson out at second.5–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–0
- 7Schuemann hit sacrifice fly to center, Cameron scored.4–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 6Rooker homered to left center (432 feet).3–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 4Brown homered to center (430 feet).2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Butler homered to right center (371 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 50%
- ML OAK -110 / CIN -110
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.8 pts
- CIN: Elo 55.8%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- CIN -100
- OAK -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.8 – 4.8 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1450 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −16 | OAK: Osvaldo Bido: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CIN: Fernando Cruz: team allows 0.78 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +40 Elo | CIN 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.215th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 27th of 3024–40 | Road vs home | 31–3526th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season | OAK |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 70–61 | 73–59 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–10 | 30–36 |
| Underdog | 61–51 | 43–23 |
| Overs–unders | 60–71 | 63–68–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OAK 2–2 CIN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.