Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Lawrence ButlerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Joey EstesPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Rangers- Jonah HeimBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cody BradfordPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Taveras singled to center, Duran scored, Jankowski to second, Kelly to third.2–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 12–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 6Rooker doubled to right, Butler scored.2–2
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking2–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 32–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 4Butler homered to right (367 feet).1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Heim homered to right (373 feet), Lowe scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 60%
- ML OAK +140 / TEX -165
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- TEX: Elo 58.5%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- TEX -149
- OAK +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 3.8 – 4.7 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1455 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +5 | OAK: Joey Estes: team allows 0.00 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TEX: Cody Bradford: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +59 Elo | TEX 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 59.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 59.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.123rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 27th of 3026–41 | Road vs home | 34–3218th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season | OAK |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 73–61 | 54–81 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 9–10 | 24–54 |
| Underdog | 64–51 | 30–27 |
| Overs–unders | 63–71 | 61–73–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OAK 8–13 TEX in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 21.