Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Brent RookerBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- JP SearsPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Rangers- Nathaniel LoweBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jon GrayPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Langeliers homered to center (432 feet), Bleday scored.9–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul9–2
- 9Bleday doubled to center, Butler scored.7–2
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 27–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul7–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–2
- 9Butler doubled to right, Schuemann scored.6–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–2
- 8Lowe reached on infield single to first, Jankowski scored on throwing error by first baseman Brown.5–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging5–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 7Rooker homered to left center (397 feet).5–1
- 7Pitch 9 : Ball In Play5–1
- 7Pitch 8 : Ball 35–1
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball 25–1
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 15–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking5–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 3Bleday homered to right center (369 feet), Wilson scored and Rooker scored.4–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 2Lowe homered to left center (406 feet).1–1
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 21–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 11–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 1Rooker homered to left center (416 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 53%
- ML OAK +105 / TEX -125
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.5 pts
- TEX: Elo 56.7%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- TEX -114
- OAK +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.1 – 4.4 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1452 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −12 | OAK: JP Sears: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Jon Gray: team allows 0.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +47 Elo | TEX 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 60.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 59.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 27th of 3025–41 | Road vs home | 34–3116th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season | OAK |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 72–61 | 54–80 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 9–10 | 24–53 |
| Underdog | 63–51 | 30–27 |
| Overs–unders | 62–71 | 60–73–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OAK 7–13 TEX in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 20.