New York Yankees at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Anthony VolpeBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 11 K
Rangers- Wyatt LangfordBatting1-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Andrew HeaneyPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Langford homered to left (407 feet), Taveras scored, Smith scored and Semien scored.4–7
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–7
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–7
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 34–7
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking4–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 24–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 14–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–7
- 8Lowe hit sacrifice fly to center, Semien scored, García to second, Jung to third.4–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–3
- 8Jung singled to center, Smith scored, Semien to third.4–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 14–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 8Volpe singled to center, Judge scored and Soto scored, Chisholm Jr. to third.4–1
- 8Pitch 8 : Ball In Play4–1
- 8Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 34–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 24–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 7Verdugo singled to right, Volpe scored.2–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 7Trevino grounded out to shortstop, Chisholm Jr. scored, Volpe to third.1–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 4Jung homered to left center (386 feet).0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 59%
- ML NYY -160 / TEX +135
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.9 pts
- NYY: Elo 53.2%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- NYY -145
- TEX +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.7 – 3.8 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +9 | NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.62 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Andrew Heaney: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +22 Elo | NYY 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 60.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 59.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+0.9 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 1st of 3043–26 | Road vs home | 36–3318th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 72–64 | 55–83 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 46–59 | 25–55 |
| Underdog | 26–5 | 30–28 |
| Overs–unders | 78–57–1 | 63–74–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 6–5 TEX in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.