New York Yankees at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Austin WellsBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Luis GilPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Cubs- Cody BellingerBatting1-2
- Jordan WicksPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 3Wells singled to left, Soto scored and Judge scored.3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Judge doubled to left, Torres scored, Soto to third.1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 52%
- ML NYY -120 / CHC +100
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.9 pts
- NYY: Elo 44.3%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- NYY -109
- CHC +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.3 – 4.2 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | +9 | NYY: Luis Gil: team allows 0.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHC: Jordan Wicks: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +40 Elo | CHC 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 55.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.29th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 1st of 3043–28 | Road vs home | 37–3114th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 72–66 | 69–70 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 46–61 | 22–46 |
| Underdog | 26–5 | 47–24 |
| Overs–unders | 80–57–1 | 66–72–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 1–2 CHC in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.