Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Isiah Kiner-FalefaBatting0-3
- Domingo GermanPitching3.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Cubs- Dansby SwansonBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Shota ImanagaPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Mastrobuoni singled to left, Busch scored, Suzuki to third.0–12
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–12
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–12
- 6Bellinger homered to center (397 feet), Suzuki scored.0–11
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–11
- 5Crow-Armstrong singled to right, Hoerner scored, Swanson to third.0–9
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–9
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 20–9
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–9
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–9
- 5Swanson doubled to left, Paredes scored, Hoerner to third.0–8
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–8
- 3Crow-Armstrong homered to center (417 feet).0–7
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–7
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–7
- 3Swanson homered to left (370 feet), Bellinger scored.0–6
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–6
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–6
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–6
- 2Happ singled to right, Swanson scored and Crow-Armstrong scored.0–4
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–4
- 2Crow-Armstrong doubled to center, Hoerner scored, Swanson to third.0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 1Suzuki singled to left, Happ scored on fielding error by left fielder Reynolds, Suzuki to second, Busch safe at third on error.0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 64%
- ML PIT +170 / CHC -205
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.2 pts
- CHC: Elo 59.3%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- CHC -181
- PIT +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.6 – 4.9 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +6 | PIT: Domingo German: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHC: Shota Imanaga: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +65 Elo | CHC 59.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 62.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 62.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.314th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 20th of 3033–37 | Road vs home | 36–3116th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 70–66 | 68–70 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 19–36 | 21–46 |
| Underdog | 51–30 | 47–24 |
| Overs–unders | 68–68 | 65–72–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 9–16 CHC in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 25.