Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jared JonesPitching6.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Cubs- Dansby SwansonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jameson TaillonPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9N. Gonzales singled to right, Triolo scored on error, N. Gonzales to second, N. Gonzales safe at third on throwing error by right fielder Bellinger.5–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 8McCutchen homered to left center (372 feet).4–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 8Reynolds homered to center (383 feet), Kiner-Falefa scored and N. Gonzales scored.3–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 5Happ tripled to right, Swanson scored and Crow-Armstrong scored.0–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Swanson homered to left center (370 feet).0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 57%
- ML PIT +120 / CHC -145
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.4 pts
- CHC: Elo 61.0%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- CHC -130
- PIT +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.5 – 4.0 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −21 | −13 | PIT: Jared Jones: team allows 1.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.67 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +78 Elo | CHC 61.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 21st of 3031–37 | Road vs home | 36–2913th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 68–66 | 68–68 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 18–36 | 21–45 |
| Underdog | 50–30 | 47–23 |
| Overs–unders | 67–67 | 64–71–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 7–16 CHC in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 23.