Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Dansby SwansonBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Javier AssadPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Nationals- Andres ChaparroBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- DJ HerzPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Bethancourt grounded out to catcher, Hoerner scored on throwing error by catcher Millas.5–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 5L. García Jr. walked, Young scored on Assad wild pitch.4–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 44–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 34–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 24–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 5Swanson doubled to left, Bethancourt scored.4–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 5Happ grounded out to pitcher, Hoerner scored, Bethancourt to third.3–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 5Bethancourt singled to center, Busch scored on fielding error by center fielder Young, Bethancourt to second, Hoerner safe at third on error.2–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Crow-Armstrong hit sacrifice fly to left, Paredes scored.1–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 4Chaparro homered to left (383 feet).0–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 2Gallo singled to right, Tena scored.0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 51%
- ML CHC -115 / WSH -105
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.5 pts
- CHC: Elo 54.5%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- CHC -104
- WSH +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.8 – 4.7 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +8 | CHC: Javier Assad: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: DJ Herz: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +32 Elo | CHC 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.724th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.423rd of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 18th of 3033–37 | Road vs home | 32–3523rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–68 | 75–60 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 20–45 | 11–16 |
| Underdog | 46–23 | 64–44 |
| Overs–unders | 63–70–1 | 65–69–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 4–4 WSH in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.