Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Cody BellingerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Shota ImanagaPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Nationals- Dylan CrewsBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching4.2 IP, 7 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Young singled to center, Gallo scored and Vargas scored, Abrams to second.7–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–6
- 9Vargas singled to right, L. García Jr. scored, Gallo to third.7–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging7–4
- 3Crews homered to left center (404 feet).7–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–3
- 2Bellinger homered to right center (386 feet), Busch scored.7–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 17–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul7–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–2
- 2Busch doubled to right, Happ scored.5–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–2
- 2Happ grounded into fielder's choice to first, Crow-Armstrong scored.4–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 34–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 24–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 2Crow-Armstrong doubled to center, Hoerner scored and Swanson scored.3–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 13–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul3–2
- 2Swanson singled to center, Paredes scored, Hoerner to second.1–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 1Tena doubled to center, Chaparro scored and Wood scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 57%
- ML CHC -145 / WSH +120
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- CHC: Elo 53.8%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- CHC -130
- WSH +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.0 – 3.5 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +13 | CHC: Shota Imanaga: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.63 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +27 Elo | CHC 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 59.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 58.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.724th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.423rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 19th of 3032–37 | Road vs home | 32–3422nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–67 | 74–60 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 20–44 | 11–16 |
| Underdog | 46–23 | 63–44 |
| Overs–unders | 62–70–1 | 64–69–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 3–4 WSH in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.