Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Dansby SwansonBatting4-6, 1 RBI
- Jordan WicksPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 0 K
Nationals- Darren BakerBatting1-1
- Mitchell ParkerPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Swanson reached on infield single to second, Amaya scored, Tauchman to second.14–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play14–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 214–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 114–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging14–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking14–1
- 9Tauchman singled to center, Crow-Armstrong scored, Amaya to third.13–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play13–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul13–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging13–1
- 9Amaya doubled to left, Busch scored and Hoerner scored, Crow-Armstrong to third.12–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play12–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 212–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking12–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul12–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 112–1
- 9Hoerner singled to left, Paredes scored and Suzuki scored, Busch to second.10–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 110–1
- 9Busch walked, Happ scored, Paredes to second, Suzuki to third.8–1
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball 48–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 38–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging8–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 28–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 18–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–1
- 7Paredes singled to center, Bellinger scored.7–1
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul7–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking7–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 27–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 17–1
- 7Bellinger grounded into fielder's choice to second, Swanson scored and Suzuki scored on fielding error by second baseman L. García Jr.6–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 16–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–1
- 4Crow-Armstrong reached on bunt single to third, Hoerner scored on throwing error by third baseman Tena, Crow-Armstrong to third.4–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Paredes singled to right, Happ scored and Swanson scored, Suzuki to third.3–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 55%
- ML CHC -135 / WSH +115
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- CHC: Elo 56.1%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- CHC -124
- WSH +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.5 – 4.0 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −3 | CHC: Jordan Wicks: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · WSH: Mitchell Parker: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +42 Elo | CHC 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.724th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 18th of 3034–37 | Road vs home | 32–3624th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 67–68 | 75–61 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 20–45 | 11–17 |
| Underdog | 47–23 | 64–44 |
| Overs–unders | 63–71–1 | 65–70–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 5–4 WSH in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.