Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Jared TrioloBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Paul SkenesPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Cubs- Ian HappBatting1-4
- Kyle HendricksPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Triolo homered to left center (371 feet), N. Gonzales scored and Joe scored.5–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 3Tellez singled to right, Cruz scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 3McCutchen hit sacrifice fly to center, Kiner-Falefa scored, Cruz to third.1–0
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 31–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 53%
- ML PIT -125 / CHC +105
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.1 pts
- PIT: Elo 44.1%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- PIT -114
- CHC +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.9 – 3.6 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −18 | PIT: Paul Skenes: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CHC: Kyle Hendricks: team allows 0.89 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +41 Elo | CHC 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.413th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 20th of 3032–37 | Road vs home | 36–3014th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 69–66 | 68–69 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 18–36 | 21–46 |
| Underdog | 51–30 | 47–23 |
| Overs–unders | 68–67 | 65–71–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 8–16 CHC in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 24.