Kansas City Royals at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Salvador PerezBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Yankees- Austin WellsBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Wells doubled to left, Volpe scored.4–10
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–10
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 24–10
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–10
- 8Judge grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Verdugo scored, Soto out at second, Volpe to third.4–9
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–9
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 24–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–9
- 8Torres singled to center, Cabrera scored, Verdugo to second.4–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–8
- 7Wells homered to right center (404 feet), Soto scored and Judge scored.4–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 24–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–7
- 7Judge singled to left, Torres scored, Soto to second.4–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 6Renfroe homered to left (376 feet).4–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 5Witt Jr. scored on error, Perez safe at first on fielding error by second baseman Torres.3–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 4Verdugo homered to right center (374 feet), Cabrera scored.2–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging2–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 22–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 4Cabrera walked, Domínguez scored on throwing error by catcher Perez.2–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 42–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 32–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 22–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 3Perez homered to left center (422 feet).2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 62%
- ML KC +150 / NYY -180
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- NYY: Elo 57.4%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- NYY -161
- KC +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.7 – 4.8 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +6 | KC: Brady Singer: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +52 Elo | NYY 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 62.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 61.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 5.02nd of 30 |
| 6th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.92nd of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 14th of 3034–35 | Road vs home | 37–3115th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 80–62 | 74–67 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 36–35 | 48–62 |
| Underdog | 44–27 | 26–5 |
| Overs–unders | 64–77–1 | 80–60–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 3–7 NYY in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.