New York Yankees at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Austin WellsBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Clarke SchmidtPitching4.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Cubs- Ian HappBatting1-3
- Javier AssadPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Judge scored on throwing error by catcher Bethancourt, Chisholm Jr. stole third.2–0
- 6Judge scored on throwing error by catcher Bethancourt, Chisholm Jr. stole third.2–0
- 1Wells grounded out to second, Torres scored, Soto to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 57%
- ML NYY -150 / CHC +125
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.8 pts
- NYY: Elo 48.6%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- NYY -135
- CHC +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.1 – 3.4 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +7 | NYY: Clarke Schmidt: team allows 0.61 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Javier Assad: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +9 Elo | CHC 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 55.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.29th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.413th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 1st of 3044–28 | Road vs home | 37–3216th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 73–66 | 69–71 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 47–61 | 22–46 |
| Underdog | 26–5 | 47–25 |
| Overs–unders | 80–58–1 | 66–73–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 2–2 CHC in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.