New York Yankees at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Gleyber TorresBatting1-4
- Gerrit ColePitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Cubs- Isaac ParedesBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Jameson TaillonPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 2Volpe hit sacrifice fly to left, Chisholm Jr. scored.1–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 1I. Paredes singled to center, Bellinger scored and Swanson scored, Tauchman to third.0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 58%
- ML NYY -155 / CHC +130
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.9 pts
- NYY: Elo 51.4%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- NYY -140
- CHC +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.6 – 3.9 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −12 | NYY: Gerrit Cole: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.62 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +10 Elo | NYY 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 59.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 58.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.413th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 1st of 3045–28 | Road vs home | 37–3317th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 74–66 | 69–72 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 48–61 | 22–46 |
| Underdog | 26–5 | 47–26 |
| Overs–unders | 80–59–1 | 66–74–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 3–2 CHC in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.