Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Salvador PerezBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Alec MarshPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 11 K
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Luis OrtizPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Cruz singled to left, Triolo scored, Kiner-Falefa to third.8–3
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play8–3
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul8–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 38–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging8–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 28–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 18–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–3
- 9Reynolds hit sacrifice fly to left, De La Cruz scored.8–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–2
- 8Frazier homered to right (402 feet).8–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 28–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 18–1
- 6Bart singled to right, Cruz scored.7–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–1
- 4Isbel homered to right center (381 feet).7–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–0
- 2Perez homered to center (434 feet), Pham scored.6–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 2Pham singled to center, Gurriel scored and Isbel scored.4–0
- 2Pitch 8 : Ball In Play4–0
- 2Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 24–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 2Isbel doubled to right, Frazier scored, Gurriel to third.2–0
- 2Pitch 10 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 8 : Ball 32–0
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball 22–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 12–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 50%
- ML KC -110 / PIT -110
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- PIT: Elo 51.5%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- PIT -100
- KC -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.3 – 4.3 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +11 | KC: Alec Marsh: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Luis Ortiz: team allows 0.55 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +11 Elo | PIT 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.520th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 15th of 3035–37 | Road vs home | 37–3820th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 82–63 | 74–70 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 36–35 | 23–39 |
| Underdog | 46–28 | 51–31 |
| Overs–unders | 65–79–1 | 73–71 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 0–3 PIT in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.