Washington Nationals at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Andres ChaparroBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Mitchell ParkerPitching3.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Pirates- Isiah Kiner-FalefaBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ruiz doubled to left, Vargas scored.8–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–6
- 9Vargas doubled to center, Young scored and Wood scored.7–6
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–6
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking7–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 37–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking7–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 27–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–6
- 9Wood singled to left, Millas scored.5–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–6
- 8Reynolds grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Bart scored, Kiner-Falefa out at second.4–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–6
- 8Kiner-Falefa singled to center, De La Cruz scored, Bart to third.4–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–5
- 7Chaparro homered to left (426 feet), Millas scored.4–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 24–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 4Cruz hit sacrifice fly to right, Kiner-Falefa scored, Reynolds to second.2–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 4Crews hit sacrifice fly to right, Ruiz scored.2–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 3Chaparro singled to right, Millas scored, Abrams to second.1–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 2Williams doubled to left, Grandal scored.0–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 1Triolo singled to right, Kiner-Falefa scored and Cruz scored, Triolo to second.0–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 57%
- ML WSH +120 / PIT -145
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- PIT: Elo 55.2%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- PIT -130
- WSH +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.5 – 4.0 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1467 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | −9 | WSH: Mitchell Parker: team allows 0.77 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +36 Elo | PIT 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 57.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.621st of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3031–41 | Road vs home | 33–3725th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 77–64 | 71–68 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 11–18 | 20–37 |
| Underdog | 66–46 | 51–31 |
| Overs–unders | 67–73–1 | 70–69 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 4–8 PIT in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 12.