Washington Nationals at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Dylan CrewsBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- DJ HerzPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Pirates- Rowdy TellezBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis OrtizPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9N. Gonzales singled to left, Bart scored, Cruz to second.5–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 9Abrams hit sacrifice fly to center, Crews scored.5–2
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking5–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 25–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging5–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 7Tellez homered to right (443 feet), N. Gonzales scored.4–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 24–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 6Crews doubled to left, Tena scored.4–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 34–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 24–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–0
- 6Ruiz hit sacrifice fly to right, L. García Jr. scored.3–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4L. García Jr. scored, Tena to third on passed ball by Bart.2–0
- 4L. García Jr. scored, Tena to third on passed ball by Bart.2–0
- 2Crews homered to left center (404 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 54%
- ML WSH +110 / PIT -130
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- PIT: Elo 55.9%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- PIT -119
- WSH +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.1 – 4.4 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +13 | WSH: DJ Herz: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · PIT: Luis Ortiz: team allows 0.66 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +41 Elo | PIT 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.621st of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3030–41 | Road vs home | 33–3624th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 76–64 | 71–67 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 11–18 | 20–36 |
| Underdog | 65–46 | 51–31 |
| Overs–unders | 67–72–1 | 70–68 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 3–8 PIT in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.