Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Joey GalloBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Patrick CorbinPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Marlins- Connor NorbyBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Max MeyerPitching5.2 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Chaparro grounded out to shortstop, Young scored.6–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging6–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 16–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–2
- 6Pache doubled to right, Hensley scored.5–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 15–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 6Ruiz homered to right center (378 feet).5–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 5Norby doubled to center, Fortes scored.4–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Gallo homered to center (415 feet), Chaparro scored and Wood scored.4–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Young singled to right, Ruiz scored, Young out stretching at second.1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 51%
- ML WSH -105 / MIA -115
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- MIA: Elo 49.2%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MIA -104
- WSH +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.2 – 4.3 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1466 | 1444 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −3 | WSH: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Max Meyer: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +6 Elo | WSH 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.829th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.128th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −1.428th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3029–39 | Road vs home | 25–4429th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–62 | 62–74 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–17 | 2–19 |
| Underdog | 64–45 | 60–55 |
| Overs–unders | 66–70–1 | 76–59–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 9–11 MIA in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 20.