Miami Marlins at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Griffin ConineBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Edward CabreraPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Giants- Michael ConfortoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mason BlackPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Conforto homered to center (418 feet).4–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–3
- 7Hensley grounded out to third, Lopez scored.4–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 24–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 6Fitzgerald singled to left, Chapman scored, Conforto to second.3–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 13–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 6Norby homered to left (362 feet).3–1
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 33–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 23–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 5Yastrzemski grounded out to second, Encarnación scored, Wisely to third.2–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 2Conine homered to right (401 feet), Bride scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SF 57%
- ML MIA +120 / SF -145
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.4 pts
- SF: Elo 59.0%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- SF -130
- MIA +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.5 – 4.0 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1440 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −4 | MIA: Edward Cabrera: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Mason Black: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +63 Elo | SF 59.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 57.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 57.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.4 | Margin | −0.119th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 28th of 3024–42 | Road vs home | 39–287th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–74 | 67–67 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 2–19 | 29–42 |
| Underdog | 58–55 | 38–25 |
| Overs–unders | 75–58–1 | 70–63–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 4–6 SF in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.