Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Derek HillBatting3-6, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Valente BellozoPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Rockies- Brendan RodgersBatting3-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Bradley BlalockPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Stowers singled to right, Norby scored, Bride to second.12–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play12–8
- 6Doyle singled to center, Rodgers scored, McMahon to second.11–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play11–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 111–8
- 6McMahon singled to left, Tovar scored, Rodgers to third.11–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play11–7
- 6Bruján singled to center, Lopez scored.11–6
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play11–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 311–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 211–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 111–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging11–6
- 6Hill homered to left center (420 feet), Burger scored.10–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play10–6
- 5Norby grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Bruján scored, A. Sánchez out at second.8–6
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–6
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul8–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging8–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 28–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 18–6
- 4Rodgers homered to left (438 feet), Romo scored.7–6
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 17–6
- 4Tovar hit sacrifice fly to center, Hilliard scored, Romo to third.7–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging7–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 17–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging7–4
- 4Romo doubled to right, Jones scored, Hilliard to third.7–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul7–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 27–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 17–3
- 4Stowers scored on error, Hill safe at first on fielding error by third baseman McMahon, Hill safe at second on error.7–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 17–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging7–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockies 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- COL 57%
- ML MIA +120 / COL -145
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- COL: Elo 53.7%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- COL -130
- MIA +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 5.5 – 6.0 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1439 | 1419 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +23 | MIA: Valente Bellozo: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · COL: Bradley Blalock: team allows 1.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +26 Elo | COL 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 5.830th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.4 | Margin | −1.529th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 28th of 3023–41 | Road vs home | 31–3222nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 59–73 | 65–65 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–19 | 2–7 |
| Underdog | 57–54 | 63–57 |
| Overs–unders | 74–57–1 | 70–60 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 6–7 COL in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 13.