Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jesus SanchezBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Edward CabreraPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Rockies- Ryan McMahonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryan FeltnerPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 6McMahon homered to center (438 feet).2–3
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 32–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 22–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 5Cave singled to left, Beck scored, Cave to second.2–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 5Schunk grounded out to second, Hilliard scored, Beck to second.2–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 5J. Sánchez singled to left, Fortes scored and Norby scored, Burger to second.2–0
- 5Pitch 8 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockies 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- COL 50%
- ML MIA -110 / COL -110
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- COL: Elo 48.1%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- COL -100
- MIA -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 5.3 – 5.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1442 | 1416 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −8 | MIA: Edward Cabrera: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Ryan Feltner: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +13 Elo | MIA 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 5.830th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.4 | Margin | −1.629th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 28th of 3022–39 | Road vs home | 29–3124th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 57–72 | 64–63 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–19 | 1–5 |
| Underdog | 55–53 | 63–57 |
| Overs–unders | 73–55–1 | 69–58 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 5–5 COL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.