Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Derek HillBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Max MeyerPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Rockies- Aaron SchunkBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Tovar doubled to center, Romo scored and Jones scored.2–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–8
- 6Romo grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Toglia scored and Jones scored on throwing error by shortstop Lopez.2–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 12–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–6
- 6Jones singled to center, Doyle scored, Jones to second, Toglia to third.2–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 5Schunk homered to left (429 feet).2–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Conine singled to center, Bride scored, Lopez to second.2–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 3Romo scored on pickoff error by pitcher Meyer.1–2
- 3Romo scored on pickoff error by pitcher Meyer.1–2
- 2Jones singled to right, Doyle scored.1–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 21–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 2Hill homered to left (378 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockies 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- COL 57%
- ML MIA +120 / COL -145
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.5 pts
- COL: Elo 49.0%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- COL -130
- MIA +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 5.0 – 5.5 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1442 | 1416 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +4 | MIA: Max Meyer: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +7 Elo | MIA 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 5.830th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.4 | Margin | −1.629th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 28th of 3023–40 | Road vs home | 30–3224th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 59–72 | 64–65 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 2–19 | 1–7 |
| Underdog | 57–53 | 63–57 |
| Overs–unders | 74–56–1 | 70–59 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 6–6 COL in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 12.