Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jesus SanchezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Jonathan BermudezPitching3.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Rockies- Ezequiel TovarBatting3-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Cal QuantrillPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9J. Sánchez homered to right center (396 feet), Norby scored and Hill scored.9–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–8
- 9Burger doubled to center, Conine scored and Hensley scored, Norby to third.6–8
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–8
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 36–8
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 26–8
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 16–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–8
- 6Tovar hit sacrifice fly to right, Beck scored.4–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–8
- 6Hilliard homered to left center (394 feet).4–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–7
- 6A. Sánchez hit sacrifice fly to center, Conine scored.4–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–6
- 6Bruján grounded out to first, Stowers scored.3–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–6
- 4Stowers homered to left center (403 feet).2–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–6
- 3J. Sánchez doubled to center, Norby scored.1–6
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–6
- 2Tovar homered to left (402 feet), Blackmon scored.0–6
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–6
- 1Stallings reached on infield single to shortstop, Toglia scored.0–4
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 1Cave doubled to right, Rodgers scored, Toglia to third.0–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 1Tovar homered to center (456 feet).0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockies 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- COL 57%
- ML MIA +125 / COL -150
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.5 pts
- COL: Elo 49.9%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- COL -135
- MIA +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 5.4 – 6.1 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1441 | 1417 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | −11 | MIA: Roddery Munoz: team allows 0.79 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · COL: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.53 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA 0 Elo | MIA 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 5.830th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.4 | Margin | −1.629th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 28th of 3022–40 | Road vs home | 30–3122nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–72 | 64–64 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–19 | 1–6 |
| Underdog | 56–53 | 63–57 |
| Overs–unders | 73–56–1 | 69–59 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 5–6 COL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.