San Francisco Giants at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Tyler FitzgeraldBatting1-3
- Hayden BirdsongPitching3.2 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Brewers- Garrett MitchellBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Aaron CivalePitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 4Contreras singled to left, Chourio scored.0–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–6
- 4Chourio doubled to right, Turang scored and Perkins scored.0–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–5
- 3Contreras stole home.0–3
- 3Contreras stole home.0–3
- 2Perkins hit sacrifice fly to center, Sánchez scored, Ortiz to third.0–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 2Mitchell homered to right center (390 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 54%
- ML SF +110 / MIL -130
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.9 pts
- MIL: Elo 59.2%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- MIL -119
- SF +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.1 – 4.4 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −8 | SF: Hayden Birdsong: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · MIL: Aaron Civale: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +64 Elo | MIL 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 55.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.03rd of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.83rd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3029–38 | Road vs home | 39–254th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–66 | 71–59 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 28–42 | 30–41 |
| Underdog | 38–24 | 41–18 |
| Overs–unders | 70–61–1 | 74–56 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 6–3 MIL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.