Miami Marlins at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Kyle StowersBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Darren McCaughanPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Giants- Mike YastrzemskiBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching6.0 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7J. Sánchez hit sacrifice fly to center, Fortes scored, Stowers to third.7–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–5
- 6Lopez grounded out to third, Bride scored, Conine to second.6–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–5
- 6Bride doubled to center, J. Sánchez scored.5–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Bunted Foul5–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking5–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 25–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–5
- 5Encarnación hit sacrifice fly to left, Conforto scored, Canha to second.4–5
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–5
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 24–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–5
- 5Canha singled to right, Fitzgerald scored, Conforto to third.4–4
- 5Pitch 8 : Ball In Play4–4
- 5Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 34–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 24–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 14–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 5Chapman grounded out to second, Yastrzemski scored, Conforto to second, Fitzgerald to third.4–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 5Stowers homered to center (439 feet), Hensley scored and Fortes scored.4–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 24–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 5Fortes singled to center, Devers scored, Fortes to second, Hensley to third.1–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- SF 70%
- ML MIA +225 / SF -275
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.7 pts
- SF: Elo 59.7%, market 70.4%
- Fair odds
- SF -238
- MIA +238 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 2.8 – 4.7 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1442 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +7 | MIA: Darren McCaughan (no track record yet) · SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +68 Elo | SF 59.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 66.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 65.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 70.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.4 | Margin | −0.119th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 28th of 3025–42 | Road vs home | 39–297th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–74 | 67–68 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–19 | 29–43 |
| Underdog | 59–55 | 38–25 |
| Overs–unders | 75–59–1 | 70–64–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 5–6 SF in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.