Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- James WoodBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Marlins- Xavier EdwardsBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Valente BellozoPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 10Edwards singled to center, Conine scored.3–4
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–4
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 13–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–4
- 8Burger singled to left, Edwards scored, Norby to second.3–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 23–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 8Wood doubled to left, Tena scored, Chaparro to third.3–2
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 33–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 23–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 8Chaparro grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Young scored, Tena to second, Crews out at third.2–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 8Tena walked, Ruiz scored, Crews to second, Young to third.1–2
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball 41–2
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking1–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 31–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 7Lopez doubled to center, Bride scored.0–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 6Fortes doubled to left, Conine scored, Fortes to third.0–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 57%
- ML WSH -145 / MIA +120
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- WSH: Elo 53.1%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- WSH -130
- MIA +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.5 – 4.0 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1468 | 1441 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −9 | WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Valente Bellozo: team allows 0.46 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +22 Elo | WSH 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 55.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.829th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.228th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −1.428th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3030–39 | Road vs home | 25–4529th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 76–62 | 62–75 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–17 | 2–20 |
| Underdog | 65–45 | 60–55 |
| Overs–unders | 66–71–1 | 76–60–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 10–11 MIA in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 21.