Washington Nationals at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Andres ChaparroBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Pirates- Nick GonzalesBatting1-4, 3 RBI
- Bailey FalterPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Chaparro hit by pitch, Nuñez scored, Yepez to second, Crews to third.4–9
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–9
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 14–9
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–9
- 6Tellez walked, Reynolds scored, N. Gonzales to second, Cruz to third.3–9
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 43–9
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking3–9
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 33–9
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 23–9
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–9
- 6N. Gonzales walked, De La Cruz scored, Cruz to second, Reynolds to third.3–8
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 43–8
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 33–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 23–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–8
- 6Triolo scored, Reynolds to second on passed ball by Ruiz, De La Cruz to third on passed ball by Ruiz.3–7
- 6Triolo scored, Reynolds to second on passed ball by Ruiz, De La Cruz to third on passed ball by Ruiz.3–7
- 3Grandal singled to right, Joe scored.3–6
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–6
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 23–6
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–6
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–6
- 2N. Gonzales singled to right, Kiner-Falefa scored and Reynolds scored, Cruz to second.3–5
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–5
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 23–5
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–5
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 2Reynolds singled to right, Triolo scored, Kiner-Falefa to third.3–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 2Kiner-Falefa singled to left, Grandal scored, Triolo to third.3–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 2Triolo singled to right, Joe scored, Grandal to third.3–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 1Chaparro homered to left center (419 feet), Yepez scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 53%
- ML WSH +105 / PIT -125
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- PIT: Elo 51.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- PIT -114
- WSH +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.1 – 4.4 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1467 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −8 | WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Bailey Falter: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +13 Elo | PIT 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 24th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.621st of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.423rd of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3030–40 | Road vs home | 32–3625th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 76–63 | 70–67 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 11–18 | 19–36 |
| Underdog | 65–45 | 51–31 |
| Overs–unders | 66–72–1 | 69–68 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 3–7 PIT in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.