Miami Marlins at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Cristian PacheBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Xzavion CurryPitching4.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Pirates- Jared TrioloBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bailey FalterPitching7.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Pache singled to center, Lopez scored, Burger to second.1–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 21–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 2Triolo homered to left (378 feet).0–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 1Joe hit sacrifice fly to center, Bart scored, N. Gonzales to third.0–2
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 20–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 1Cruz walked, Reynolds scored, N. Gonzales to second, Bart to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 40–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 30–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 59%
- ML MIA +135 / PIT -160
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- PIT: Elo 56.2%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- PIT -145
- MIA +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.8 – 4.7 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1444 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −7 | MIA: Jonathan Bermudez (no track record yet) · PIT: Bailey Falter: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +43 Elo | PIT 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 57.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 57.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.621st of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.3 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 28th of 3026–44 | Road vs home | 36–3822nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–78 | 73–70 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–20 | 22–39 |
| Underdog | 64–58 | 51–31 |
| Overs–unders | 80–63–1 | 73–70 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 5–8 PIT in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 13.