Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Marlins- Otto LopezBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Austin KitchenPitching2.0 IP, 6 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Pache singled to left, Hensley scored, Stowers to second, Lopez to third.16–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play16–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging16–2
- 9Stubbs hit sacrifice fly to center, Stevenson scored.16–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play16–1
- 9Stott hit sacrifice fly to center, Sosa scored, Stevenson to third.15–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play15–1
- 6Schwarber homered to right center (434 feet), Rojas scored.14–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play14–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging14–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 114–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul14–1
- 6Rojas doubled to center, Clemens scored.12–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play12–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul12–1
- 6Clemens doubled to left, Marsh scored.11–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play11–1
- 5Harper singled to left, Turner scored.10–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play10–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging10–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul10–1
- 5Turner doubled to right, Rojas scored.9–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–1
- 5Rojas doubled to left, Clemens scored.8–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 28–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 18–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–1
- 4Lopez doubled to shortstop, Norby scored, Burger to third.7–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul7–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–1
- 2Realmuto singled to center, Harper scored.7–0
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play7–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul7–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul7–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking7–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 27–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 17–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 70%
- ML PHI -270 / MIA +220
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- PHI: Elo 64.0%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- PHI -234
- MIA +234 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.7 – 2.8 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1441 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | +6 | PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.77 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Austin Kitchen (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +100 Elo | PHI 64.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 70.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 69.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 70.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 3.829th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.128th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.8 | Margin | −1.428th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 9th of 3036–31 | Road vs home | 26–4629th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 70–70 | 63–76 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 51–56 | 2–20 |
| Underdog | 19–14 | 61–56 |
| Overs–unders | 65–74–1 | 76–62–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 14–11 MIA in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 25.