Philadelphia Phillies at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting1-4, 1 RBI
- Bowden FrancisPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Realmuto homered to left center (394 feet).4–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 2Clemens homered to right (371 feet), Marsh scored.3–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 1Kirk doubled to center, Guerrero Jr. scored.1–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 1Guerrero Jr. doubled to left, Varsho scored.1–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 1Schwarber homered to right (416 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 53%
- ML PHI -125 / TOR +105
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- PHI: Elo 52.2%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- PHI -114
- TOR +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.9 – 3.6 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +14 | PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Bowden Francis: team allows 0.70 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +15 Elo | PHI 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 57.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 56.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.623rd of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 9th of 3034–31 | Road vs home | 34–3419th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 68–70 | 70–69 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 49–56 | 27–40 |
| Underdog | 19–14 | 43–29 |
| Overs–unders | 65–72–1 | 76–62–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 5–2 TOR in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.