Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Orlando ArciaBatting2-3, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Reynaldo LopezPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Phillies- Bryson StottBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Realmuto homered to left center (385 feet).7–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul7–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 27–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 17–2
- 7Olson doubled to center, Ozuna scored.7–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–1
- 6Urshela doubled to left, Murphy scored.6–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–1
- 6Arcia homered to center (421 feet).5–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 25–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 15–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–1
- 4Stott homered to right (354 feet).4–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 24–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 4Murphy grounded out to third, Olson scored, Arcia to second, Harris II to third.4–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 4Laureano grounded out to third, Ozuna scored, Olson to second.3–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 3Murphy homered to left (400 feet).2–0
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 32–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 3Arcia homered to left center (408 feet).1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 57%
- ML ATL +120 / PHI -145
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- PHI: Elo 53.0%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- PHI -130
- ATL +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 3.5 – 4.0 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +6 | ATL: Reynaldo Lopez: team allows 0.57 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PHI: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +21 Elo | PHI 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 54.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.05th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.84th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 8th of 3037–33 | Road vs home | 45–231st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 63–70 | 66–68 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 44–60 | 48–54 |
| Underdog | 19–10 | 18–14 |
| Overs–unders | 49–81–3 | 63–70–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 15–12 PHI in their last 27 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 27.