Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Michael Harris IIBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Spencer SchwellenbachPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Phillies- Nick CastellanosBatting2-5, 3 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 11Castellanos singled to center, Clemens scored, Harper to third.2–3
- 11Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–3
- 11Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 11Pitch 3 : Ball 12–3
- 11Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 11Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 6Castellanos doubled to left, Harper scored and Turner scored.2–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 4Merrifield grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Olson scored, d'Arnaud out at second.2–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 32–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking2–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 3Harris II homered to center (413 feet).1–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 53%
- ML ATL +105 / PHI -125
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- PHI: Elo 54.3%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- PHI -114
- ATL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.1 – 4.4 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +3 | ATL: Spencer Schwellenbach: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +30 Elo | PHI 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 55.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.86th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.05th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.84th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 9th of 3038–34 | Road vs home | 46–242nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 64–71 | 67–69 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 44–60 | 49–55 |
| Underdog | 20–11 | 18–14 |
| Overs–unders | 50–82–3 | 64–71–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 16–13 PHI in their last 29 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 29.