Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Whit MerrifieldBatting1-4
- Max FriedPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Phillies- Edmundo SosaBatting2-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Sosa doubled to right, Wilson scored, Sosa to third.0–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 6Turner homered to left center (388 feet).0–2
- 6Pitch 9 : Ball In Play0–2
- 6Pitch 8 : Ball 30–2
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball 20–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 10–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 3Sosa homered to left center (450 feet).0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 60%
- ML ATL +140 / PHI -165
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- PHI: Elo 55.3%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- PHI -149
- ATL +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 3.3 – 4.2 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +13 | ATL: Max Fried: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.64 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +37 Elo | PHI 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 56.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.86th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.16th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.84th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 9th of 3038–33 | Road vs home | 45–242nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 64–70 | 66–69 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 44–60 | 48–55 |
| Underdog | 20–10 | 18–14 |
| Overs–unders | 50–81–3 | 64–70–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 16–12 PHI in their last 28 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 28.