Philadelphia Phillies at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting5-6, 3 HR, 6 RBI
- Taijuan WalkerPitching3.0 IP, 2 ER, 0 K
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting4-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Jimenez homered to left center (373 feet).10–9
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play10–9
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 310–9
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 210–9
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 110–9
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking10–9
- 9Schwarber homered to right (426 feet), Sosa scored and Clemens scored.10–8
- 9Pitch 9 : Ball In Play10–8
- 9Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul10–8
- 9Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul10–8
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul10–8
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 110–8
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul10–8
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul10–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul10–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul10–8
- 7Schwarber reached on infield single to shortstop, Sosa scored, Clemens to second.7–8
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 17–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging7–8
- 7Clemens grounded into fielder's choice to third, Stott scored, Sosa to second, Marsh out at third.6–8
- 7Pitch 11 : Ball In Play6–8
- 7Pitch 10 : Strike 2 Foul6–8
- 7Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul6–8
- 7Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul6–8
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball 26–8
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul6–8
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–8
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 16–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking6–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–8
- 7Sosa walked, Castellanos scored, Marsh to second, Stott to third.5–8
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball 45–8
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 35–8
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–8
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 25–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging5–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 15–8
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 52%
- ML PHI +100 / TOR -120
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.4 pts
- TOR: Elo 45.8%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- TOR -109
- PHI +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.2 – 4.3 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −3 | PHI: Tyler Phillips: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +29 Elo | PHI 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.622nd of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 11th of 3033–31 | Road vs home | 34–3319th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 67–70 | 70–68 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 49–56 | 27–39 |
| Underdog | 18–14 | 43–29 |
| Overs–unders | 64–72–1 | 75–62–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 4–2 TOR in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.