Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Bryson StottBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Marlins- Jesus SanchezBatting1-2, 1 RBI
- Adam OllerPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Burger scored on error, Lopez safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Clemens.5–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 7J. Sánchez singled to center, Conine scored.5–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 15–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–1
- 6Clemens scored on Veneziano wild pitch, Rojas stole second.5–0
- 6Clemens scored on Veneziano wild pitch, Rojas stole second.5–0
- 6Clemens scored on Veneziano wild pitch, Rojas stole second.5–0
- 6Clemens doubled to left, Marsh scored and Realmuto scored.4–0
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 24–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 6Stott homered to right (406 feet).2–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Stott singled to left, Turner scored, Harper to second.1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 67%
- ML PHI -235 / MIA +195
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.4 pts
- PHI: Elo 62.0%, market 67.4%
- Fair odds
- PHI -207
- MIA +207 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 5.0 – 3.5 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1443 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +4 | PHI: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Adam Oller: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +85 Elo | PHI 62.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 66.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 66.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 67.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 3.829th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.128th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.8 | Margin | −1.428th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 9th of 3035–31 | Road vs home | 26–4529th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 69–70 | 63–75 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 50–56 | 2–20 |
| Underdog | 19–14 | 61–55 |
| Overs–unders | 65–73–1 | 76–61–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 13–11 MIA in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 24.