Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Bryson StottBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Marlins- Connor NorbyBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Darren McCaughanPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Marsh singled to center, Stott scored.5–9
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–9
- 8Stott doubled to right, Castellanos scored.4–9
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–9
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 34–9
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 24–9
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–9
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 14–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–9
- 7Sanoja grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Conine scored and Fortes scored on throwing error by shortstop Turner, Sanoja second.3–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–9
- 7Lopez homered to center (427 feet).3–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–7
- 6J. Sánchez singled to center, Edwards scored.3–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–6
- 5Bride homered to left (367 feet).3–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–5
- 5Stubbs reached on bunt single to third, Rojas scored.3–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–4
- 4Norby singled to left, Lopez scored, Hensley to second, Fortes to third.2–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 3Bride reached on infield single to third, J. Sánchez scored on throwing error by third baseman Clemens.2–3
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 32–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 22–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 3Schwarber hit sacrifice fly to left, Stubbs scored.2–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 1Norby homered to center (435 feet), Edwards scored.1–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 69%
- ML PHI -250 / MIA +205
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- PHI: Elo 63.5%, market 68.5%
- Fair odds
- PHI -218
- MIA +218 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 5.1 – 3.4 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1553 | 1438 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +4 | PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Darren McCaughan: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +97 Elo | PHI 63.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 66.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 66.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 68.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 3.829th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.229th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+0.9 | Margin | −1.528th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 7th of 3037–31 | Road vs home | 26–4729th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 71–70 | 63–77 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 52–56 | 2–20 |
| Underdog | 19–14 | 61–57 |
| Overs–unders | 66–74–1 | 77–62–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 15–11 MIA in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 26.