Miami Marlins at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jhonny PeredaBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Adam OllerPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Pirates- Andrew McCutchenBatting1-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Joey WentzPitching2.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Burger singled to left, Pereda scored, Sanoja to second.4–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–6
- 6Stowers doubled to left, Lopez scored, Conine to third.3–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–6
- 6Bride hit sacrifice fly to left, Burger scored, Lopez to third.2–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–6
- 5McCutchen homered to left center (403 feet), Reynolds scored and Cruz scored.1–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–6
- 5Reynolds singled to center, Triolo scored.1–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 5Pereda singled to right, Stowers scored, Hensley to second.1–2
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 31–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 1Bart grounded into fielder's choice to third, Reynolds scored, McCutchen safe at second on fielding error by third baseman Burger.0–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Cruz grounded out to second, Kiner-Falefa scored, Reynolds to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 60%
- ML MIA +140 / PIT -165
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- PIT: Elo 58.1%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- PIT -149
- MIA +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.8 – 4.7 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1445 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +6 | MIA: Adam Oller: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · PIT: Carmen Mlodzinski: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +57 Elo | PIT 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 59.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 58.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.217th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.620th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.3 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 27th of 3026–43 | Road vs home | 35–3824th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–77 | 72–70 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–20 | 21–39 |
| Underdog | 64–57 | 51–31 |
| Overs–unders | 79–63–1 | 72–70 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 5–7 PIT in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 12.