Miami Marlins at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Otto LopezBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Valente BellozoPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Pirates- Oneil CruzBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Paul SkenesPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Pache doubled to left, J. Sánchez scored, Sanoja to third.2–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 12–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 4Lopez singled to right, J. Sánchez scored.1–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 2Reynolds singled to right, Williams scored and N. Gonzales scored.0–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 1Cruz homered to center (444 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 71%
- ML MIA +230 / PIT -285
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.0 pts
- PIT: Elo 60.0%, market 71.0%
- Fair odds
- PIT -244
- MIA +244 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 2.8 – 4.7 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1446 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +14 | MIA: Valente Bellozo: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · PIT: Paul Skenes: team allows 0.69 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +70 Elo | PIT 60.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 69.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 68.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 71.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.621st of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.3 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 27th of 3026–42 | Road vs home | 34–3825th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 65–77 | 72–69 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–20 | 21–38 |
| Underdog | 63–57 | 51–31 |
| Overs–unders | 79–62–1 | 72–69 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 5–6 PIT in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 11.