Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Bryan De La CruzBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bailey FalterPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Cardinals- Jordan WalkerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Lance LynnPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Arenado hit sacrifice fly to center, Winn scored.1–3
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 21–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 4Walker homered to left center (425 feet).1–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 31–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 3Baker tripled to left, Siani scored.1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2De La Cruz homered to center (431 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- STL 59%
- ML PIT +135 / STL -160
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.1 pts
- STL: Elo 55.0%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- STL -145
- PIT +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.3 – 4.2 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +8 | PIT: Bailey Falter: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Lance Lynn: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +35 Elo | STL 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.423rd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 20th of 3033–39 | Road vs home | 39–3517th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 74–73 | 74–75 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 23–42 | 21–45 |
| Underdog | 51–31 | 53–30 |
| Overs–unders | 74–73 | 70–77–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 13–10 STL in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 23.