Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Maikel GarciaBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Pirates- Isiah Kiner-FalefaBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Jared JonesPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Witt Jr. walked, Gurriel scored, Isbel to second, Garcia to third.3–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 43–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 33–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 23–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–4
- 5Tellez walked, Kiner-Falefa scored, Bart to second, Cruz to third.2–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 42–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 32–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 5Kiner-Falefa singled to center, Cook scored.2–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4N. Gonzales grounded out to third, Cruz scored, Tellez to second, Bart to third.2–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 4Garcia doubled to left, Gurriel scored.2–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 22–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 2Gurriel hit sacrifice fly to center, Massey scored.1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 1Reynolds doubled to left, Kiner-Falefa scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 52%
- ML KC +100 / PIT -120
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- PIT: Elo 48.3%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- PIT -109
- KC +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.7 – 3.8 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | −11 | KC: Brady Singer: team allows 0.73 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Jared Jones: team allows 0.53 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +12 Elo | KC 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 7th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.622nd of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 13th of 3037–37 | Road vs home | 37–4023rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 83–63 | 74–71 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 36–35 | 23–40 |
| Underdog | 47–28 | 51–31 |
| Overs–unders | 66–79–1 | 74–71 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 2–3 PIT in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.