Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Isiah Kiner-FalefaBatting2-4
- Paul SkenesPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Cardinals- Nolan ArenadoBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Andre PallantePitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Nootbaar hit sacrifice fly to right, Arenado scored, Donovan to third.0–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 10–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 8Donovan doubled to left, Goldschmidt scored, Arenado to third.0–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 7Pagés singled to right, Donovan scored, Walker to second, Nootbaar to third.0–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 10–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 4Arenado singled to center, Burleson scored.0–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 30–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 55%
- ML PIT -135 / STL +115
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.6 pts
- PIT: Elo 48.6%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- PIT -124
- STL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.0 – 3.5 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | +5 | PIT: Paul Skenes: team allows 0.79 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · STL: Andre Pallante: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +10 Elo | STL 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.424th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 20th of 3033–38 | Road vs home | 38–3518th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 74–72 | 73–75 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 23–41 | 21–45 |
| Underdog | 51–31 | 52–30 |
| Overs–unders | 74–72 | 70–76–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 13–9 STL in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 22.