St. Louis Cardinals at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Lars NootbaarBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Blue Jays- Davis SchneiderBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Yariel RodriguezPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Lukes doubled to left, Springer scored.2–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 7Nootbaar homered to right (364 feet).2–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 5Schneider homered to left center (413 feet), Horwitz scored.1–2
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 31–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 21–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 5Walker doubled to center, Herrera scored.1–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 55%
- ML STL +115 / TOR -135
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- TOR: Elo 55.4%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -124
- STL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.0 – 4.5 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −9 | STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Yariel Rodriguez: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +38 Elo | TOR 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.217th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.622nd of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 19th of 3035–39 | Road vs home | 37–3720th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 72–75 | 75–73 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 21–45 | 28–41 |
| Underdog | 51–30 | 47–32 |
| Overs–unders | 70–75–2 | 80–67–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 2–3 TOR in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.