New York Mets at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Brandon NimmoBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- David PetersonPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Blue Jays- Spencer HorwitzBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Horwitz doubled to right, Clement scored.2–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–6
- 7Iglesias scored, Taylor to second on passed ball by Kirk.2–5
- 7Iglesias scored, Taylor to second on passed ball by Kirk.2–5
- 3Loperfido singled to left, Schneider scored, Jimenez to third.1–5
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 3Schneider tripled to center, Kirk scored and Clement scored.1–4
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 31–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 3Kirk doubled to right, Varsho scored.1–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 11–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 2Jimenez singled to left, Clement scored, Horwitz to second.1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 1Nimmo singled to center, Lindor scored, Alonso to second.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 54%
- ML NYM -130 / TOR +110
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- NYM: Elo 54.5%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- NYM -119
- TOR +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 3.9 – 3.6 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | −12 | NYM: David Peterson: team allows 0.63 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.61 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +32 Elo | NYM 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.622nd of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 6th of 3038–31 | Road vs home | 34–3622nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 70–72 | 73–71 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 37–46 | 27–40 |
| Underdog | 33–26 | 46–31 |
| Overs–unders | 70–72 | 77–66–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 1–3 TOR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.