Toronto Blue Jays at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Spencer HorwitzBatting2-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Yariel RodriguezPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Braves- Jarred KelenicBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chris SalePitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 11Murphy grounded into fielder's choice to second, White scored, Olson to second, Duvall to third.3–4
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–4
- 11Harris II scored on error, Duvall safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Barger, Duvall safe at second on error, White safe at third on error.3–3
- 11Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 11Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 11Springer singled to center, Barger scored.3–2
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 9Olson hit sacrifice fly to left, White scored.2–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 8Horwitz homered to right (378 feet), Clement scored.2–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 22–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 2Kelenic homered to right center (416 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 70%
- ML TOR +220 / ATL -270
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.5 pts
- ATL: Elo 61.5%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- ATL -234
- TOR +234 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 2.8 – 4.7 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +17 | TOR: Yariel Rodriguez: team allows 0.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · ATL: Chris Sale: team allows 0.86 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +81 Elo | ATL 61.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 69.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 68.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 70.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.82nd of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.411th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 21st of 3034–40 | Road vs home | 39–308th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 71–71 | 68–73 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 27–40 | 47–62 |
| Underdog | 44–31 | 21–11 |
| Overs–unders | 77–64–1 | 51–87–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 4–1 ATL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.