Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Brendan RodgersBatting2-4
- Kyle FreelandPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Braves- Michael Harris IIBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Chris SalePitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 7Harris II hit sacrifice fly to right, Williams scored.0–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–3
- 3Harris II reached on infield single to first, Urshela scored on throwing error by first baseman Toglia.0–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 3Urshela doubled to left, Merrifield scored.0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 76.7% of 30 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 76%
- ML COL +295 / ATL -375
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- ATL: Elo 70.2%, market 75.7%
- Fair odds
- ATL -312
- COL +312 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 2.5 – 5.0 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1416 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +15 | COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Chris Sale: team allows 0.74 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +149 Elo | ATL 70.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 71.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 71.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 75.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 3.92nd of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.5 | Margin | +0.411th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 29th of 3019–50 | Road vs home | 36–2811th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–68 | 65–71 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 2–8 | 44–60 |
| Underdog | 64–59 | 21–11 |
| Overs–unders | 72–62 | 50–83–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 2–8 ATL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.