Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Anthony SantanderBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching3.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Rockies- Drew RomoBatting1-3, 3 RBI
- Ryan FeltnerPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Romo grounded out to shortstop, Beck scored.5–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul5–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 25–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–7
- 8Beck singled to center, Jones scored, Beck to second.5–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–6
- 5O'Hearn singled to center, Holliday scored and Urías scored, Rutschman to second, Rutschman safe at third on fielding error by center fielder Doyle.5–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–5
- 5Jiménez homered to center (441 feet).3–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 4Blackmon tripled to center, Beck scored and Romo scored.2–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 12–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 4Santander homered to right center (437 feet), Rutschman scored.2–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking2–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 22–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 2Romo doubled to center, Beck scored and Rodgers scored.0–3
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 30–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 2Rodgers singled to center, Doyle scored.0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 60%
- ML BAL -165 / COL +140
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.1 pts
- BAL: Elo 64.0%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- BAL -149
- COL +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 6.2 – 5.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1416 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −3 | BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Ryan Feltner: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +100 Elo | BAL 64.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 57.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.830th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −1.529th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3039–28 | Road vs home | 31–3423rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 73–62 | 65–67 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 48–52 | 2–8 |
| Underdog | 25–10 | 63–58 |
| Overs–unders | 76–57–2 | 71–61 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 3–1 COL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.